2040 The Model
Read chapter one ↗
Compliance [847]

Convenience becomes infrastructure. Then it stops being a choice.

A prognostic novel. Pattern recognition, not prediction.

8 of 16 chapters published·free on Substack·new chapter weekly
Archived transactionEU · DE · MUC · 2026

The model in operation.

Your past, recalculated. One ticked box, and the system holds authority over what you have already done.

Aerial view of rain-soaked Munich Marienplatz in 2040 — surveillance drones overhead and a PSD5 campaign hologram above the rooftops Surveillance node #MUC-821

Every action of the observer is evaluated instantly. The Payment Integrity Graph maps spending metadata against the geolocated risk profile of the sector.

CINEMA SCALA · Munich
Receipt #4471-8829 · 2040-06-12 · 19:42
────────────────────────────────────────
1× Standard ticket€12.00
Service fee€0.00
Retroactive adjustment (PSD5-T)+ €3.60
────────────────────────────────────────
Total charged€12.00
Status: compliance-corrected. Your consent was provided on 2024-03-19.

Yesterday you paid twelve euros. Today, "Economic Responsibility Day" has been declared. Your past has been recalculated. This is legal, because you once ticked a box. Welcome to 2040. The model.

Support the project →
Classification: prognostic novelFile status: active8 of 16 fragments

012040 is not science fiction. It is a model of the near future, built from regulatory documents, policy papers and technical specifications that already exist in 2026. Every core mechanism in the book, retroactive corrections, the Payment Integrity Graph, programmable money, the staged elimination of cash, has a recognizable prototype, precedent, or partial infrastructure today. The novel does not invent the architecture. It only completes it.

02Behind the narrative is a behavioural psychologist working in the Gigerenzer school. The book maps how three weaponized heuristics, trust in authority, follow the majority, fear of loss, convert convenience into infrastructure, and infrastructure into something you can no longer step outside of. It is pattern recognition, not prediction.

03The book is the entry point. Eight chapters are published serially on Substack. The crowdfunding funds the completion of the remaining eight and the release of the full sixteen-chapter book.


Where Orwell placed dystopia in the totalitarian state, Foucault located it in the quiet architectures of surveillance and scoring. 2040 follows the same trajectory into payment infrastructure: total control achieved not through violence, but through the cumulative weight of reasonable directives, each one framed as protection.

A surveillance operations centre — an analyst before a curved video wall showing the Payment Integrity Graph, a live map of Europe, transaction risk scores and CCTV feeds
Payment Integrity Graph · Munich HQ · 2040.11.23

Every transaction, scored as it happens. The graph does not forget.

Mechanism · how convenience becomes controlThree weaponized heuristics

The thesis, in three moves.

No coercion is required. Three ordinary shortcuts of human judgement, each turned against the person using it. Select one to open it.

01 Trust in authority

The regulator said it was for your protection. You did not read the directive. Your bank did not either.

Strong Customer Authentication, KYC, the “verified” badge: each one asks you to defer, and deferring becomes a reflex. The authority gradient does the work that coercion used to. By the time a rule is unreasonable, obeying it is already a habit, and the habit looks like safety.

PROTOTYPE 2026 — You authenticated a payment today without reading what you authorised.

02 Follow the majority

Seventy-eight percent of transactions are digital. Paying in cash feels like wearing medieval armour in the street.

Social proof reclassifies the holdout. The person who keeps an alternative open is not prudent, they are an outlier, and outliers are exactly what an anomaly-detection system is built to find. The majority does not have to be right. It only has to be the majority.

PROTOTYPE 2026 — Cash acceptance is already declining faster than any law required it to.

03 Fear of loss

Your account can be frozen pending review. Better not to give them a reason.

Loss aversion plus retroactive correction equals pre-emptive self-censorship. The threat does not need to be carried out; the possibility is enough. People stop donating, stop subscribing, stop asking, long before anyone tells them to. The system is most efficient when it never has to act.

PROTOTYPE 2026 — De-risking and account closures without stated cause are documented across the EU and UK.

Crowdfunding opens in daysStage two

The book is the first stage. What follows is the readers' problem.

Sixteen chapters. Eight published, eight in draft. The campaign also opens the next stage of the project.

The work does not conclude with publication. What follows is the gradual assembly of readers who treat the mechanisms described in 2040 as operational problems requiring new mechanisms of choice: lawful tools, financial pathways, and practical structures that already exist in different countries, but remain invisible to most people.

The book functions as the initial filter through which this cohort begins to identify itself and its position relative to the systems mapped.


What the campaign will fund
Back the book ↗

Redirects to Crowdfundr. The transaction occurs outside the observation environment.

A crowded city square where people stand on glowing payment tiles tapping phones and holographic interfaces, delivery drones and robots moving among them
Evidence frame · Brussels · 2037.11.23

Fourteen hours of financial silence. The city was still there. It simply could not pay.

Regulatory cascade · EU financial zoneDeclassified extract

The staircase from 2018 to 2040.

Each directive looks reasonable in isolation. Read in sequence, they are an architecture. Open each node to read the file.

Strong Customer Authentication frames consumer protection as the rationale. The architectural shift is the systematization of consumer identity at every transaction. Identity becomes a transaction layer.

PROTOTYPE — Already in force. You have used SCA today.

UPBG is presented as a fraud-prevention layer. In the model, the graph quietly absorbs adjacent functions: tax exposure, charitable patterns, political donation patterns, lifestyle indicators. A single behavioural object built around each citizen.

PROTOTYPE — PSD3 drafts are in EU consultation now. The infrastructure already exists. Only the final regulatory name remains to be assigned.
A spreadsheet of names with PSD3 roles and a 'Status by 2030' column reading Suicide, Missing, Fired, Accident, Relocated — the recovered archive of vanished staffRecovered archive · UPBG training corpora

Kravchenko vanishes after recovering an archive on early UPBG training corpora. The drive surfaces in 2040 through a former bank security chief named Max de Vries inside DFT-21.

PROTOTYPE — Investigative work on financial surveillance is already subject to NDAs, selective data access and legal pressure in multiple jurisdictions.

The pitch is convenience: faster settlement, lower fees, instant cross-border. The architectural feature is programmability: money that can be told what it is and is not permitted to do.

PROTOTYPE — The ECB Digital Euro pilot is active. The programmability layer is in the design specification.

Cross-jurisdictional risk scoring becomes active. Your transactions are evaluated not only against your own pattern but against the patterns of those you have transacted with. Guilt by adjacency, encoded.

PROTOTYPE — Correspondent banking de-risking has operated on this principle for years. PSD4 in the model formalizes it for retail.
A burning bottle striking a glass bank tower as hooded crowds flee — 'ACCOUNTS FROZEN // ANOMALY DETECTED' scrolling across the facade, surveillance drones overheadEvidence frame · Brussels · 2037.11.23

The official explanation is a routing error. In the model, it is a controlled demonstration. After the blackout, PSD5 is introduced as a "temporary measure".

PROTOTYPE — Routing outages already happen. The model only changes their interpretation.
An analyst in an open-plan office before dual screens — a Payment Integrity Graph network with a 'KEEP FREEZE' control and citizen profiles, a transaction spreadsheet beside itOperations floor · retroactive correction enabled

Introduced as a temporary stabilization measure. The temporary measure is not removed. By 2040 it is the foundation. Your past is editable by authority.

PROTOTYPE — Retrospective tax adjustments, retroactive fee corrections, and retroactive interest recalculations are already legal in narrow contexts.
Abandoned, cobwebbed server hall inside the sealed DFT-21 towerDFT-21 · Deutsche Finanz Tower · sealed

The former Deutsche Finanz Tower in northern Munich is sealed and renamed DFT-21. The interior is a zone. People who enter to recover what was once theirs are called stalkers.

PROTOTYPE — You are here. The model is not, yet.
Rain-soaked razor-wire perimeter fence with a red laser tripwire and a rusted 'ACHTUNG: DFT-21' sign marking the sealed exclusion zone
DFT-21 · Deutsche Finanz Tower · northern Munich

The ones who go back in to recover what was theirs are called stalkers.

Recovered archive · DFT-218 of 16 fragments

The chapters as recovered.

Eight of sixteen fragments published to date. Each opens on Substack. The remaining eight are completed through the crowdfunding.

Fragment 01 · 2025.11.28ID-01
DFT-21: The Zone

"Nothing in the Zone ever happened by accident. That was what the old stalkers said."

Read on Substack ↗
Fragment 02 · 2025.12.05ID-02
Anna's Files: PSD3 and the Payment Integrity Graph

"Crisis framing enables accelerated adoption with limited public scrutiny."

Read on Substack ↗
Fragment 03 · 2025.12.12ID-03
Liberty Blackout 2037

"Transaction blocked. Anomaly pattern detected."

Read on Substack ↗
Fragment 04 · 2025.12.26ID-04
The God Who Counts

"God at least lets you confess before execution. The algorithm just writes 'transaction declined'."

Read on Substack ↗
Fragment 05 · 2026.01.03ID-05
The Blue Dot

"Müller, Jamie. Rating: 847. Status: moderate anomaly. Recommendation: observe."

Read on Substack ↗
Fragment 06 · 2026.01.23ID-06
Architecture of Deception

"There was no revolution. There was comfort. And a very, very slow boiling of water."

"By the time you're reading Chapter 6, you realize you've been boiled alive. The frog metaphor isn't a throwaway line. It's the thesis of the entire book."Anna Levitt · How to Boss AI
Read on Substack ↗
Fragment 07 · 2026.02.06ID-07
Davos and the Genius of Soft Authoritarianism

"Cocaine is at least honest about what it does. Davos is not."

Read on Substack ↗
Fragment 08 · 2026.03.27ID-08
The Future of Banking & Payments

"An underground EMI that breaks its contract is a dead underground EMI. Not morality. Just a business model."

"The technical architecture reads less like worldbuilding and more like a leaked briefing document from a system already in the works in some lab."Joel Salinas · Leadership in Change
Read on Substack ↗
Fragments 09–16Sealed
Eight fragments remain encrypted

The second half of the model. Released as the crowdfunding completes the book.

Encrypted · awaiting campaign
Heuristics vs Traps publishes weekly. Latest post: .
Reviews · field reports · 2026Correlation 94%

Seven independent observations.

Statements intercepted from Substack-network observers. All sources verifiable. Select a subject to open the full record.

Verified reader statement

System read mode · intercepted profiles Visit profile ↗
David Whitehouse · The Dark Side of Development · @davidrwhitehouse

Ever-decreasing dystopias.

Dystopia isn't what it used to be. When George Orwell traced his nightmarish vision of the future in 1984, the main controlling protagonist was the authoritarian state produced by political revolution.

The European fintech-based dystopia produced by Mila Agius in her novel 2040 is both closer at hand than Orwell's vision and less dependent on political dictatorship. There's no need for tanks or revolutions, simply comfort, convenience and a silent majority which is not interested in asking difficult questions.

The account is clear, well-written and intellectually challenging. It poses difficult questions for everyone involved in finance and everyone interested in the future of our society.

Anna Levitt · How to Boss AI · @annalevitt

A genuinely uncomfortable book.

I came to this series as a skeptic of fintech fiction. 2040 is not that. Mila Agius has written something genuinely uncomfortable.

The architecture of the story mirrors its subject. Each chapter traces how systems of control are built through layered, reasonable-sounding decisions. By the time you're reading Chapter 6, Architecture of Deception, you realize you've been boiled alive. The frog metaphor isn't a throwaway line. It's the thesis of the entire book.

2040 is a serious work. It is pattern recognition, as Mila herself describes it, not prediction.

Farida Khalaf · Fintech · @faridakhalaf

A surgically precise masterclass in speculative fintech horror.

In 2040, the world hasn't fallen to tanks or revolution, but to the “slow boiling” of society through the seductive promise of convenience and safety. This gripping narrative maps the descent from early digital innovation to the total algorithmic governance of PSD5, where the Payment Integrity Graph acts as an omniscient judge of human behavior.

A hauntingly plausible map of the near future. If you value your privacy, your autonomy, or your past, read this book before the system decides you shouldn't.

Deepak Aggarwal · The Decision Architect · @deepakondecisions

It seems fictional, but hits frighteningly close to reality.

It wasn't the control that caught my attention. It was the decision layer. It's the piece that most organizations have yet to consider. We are designing faster decision engines. We are not designing their alignment with the intended outcome.

Verification does not mean correctness. That's where the hard design problems reside. It's what makes this so much more than a fictional story.

Joel Salinas · Leadership in Change · @leadershipinchange10

One of the best storytellers I've come across.

The dialogue is purposeful, never decorative. Every exchange carries information, character, and tension simultaneously. And the technical architecture of the story reads less like worldbuilding and more like a leaked briefing document from a system already in the works in some lab.

If you're not reading 2040, start from Chapter 1 and don't stop.

Jens Stark · Fintech · @jens

Vivid and cinematic experience.

2040 by Mila Agius is a terrific and terrifying read about a dystopian future that must never be allowed to happen. Her writing style is descriptive, imaginative and cinematic. The story strikes a perfect balance between re-telling the fictional narrative, while expertly honing in on technical details. It's a vivid reading experience — don't miss this one.

Karen Spinner · AI privacy · @karenspinner1

Suspense meets emerging AI privacy realities.

I've really enjoyed this series, which is a wonderfully dystopian suspense thriller that also says a lot about today's emerging AI privacy issues and all the dark places they could lead us.

Subject file · M. AgiusCognitive profile

The author writes from inside what she describes.

Black-and-white portrait of M. Agius, the author — a woman in a white shirt against a plain light background
Cognitive profile · classified
Designation
Behavioural psychologist
School
Gigerenzer · fast and frugal heuristics
Domain
Fintech · regulatory architecture · decision design
Nationality
Concealed
Source publication
Heuristics vs Traps

M. Agius writes from inside the regulatory and product architecture she describes. The work synthesizes Gigerenzer's heuristics framework, institutional analysis of European payment infrastructure, and behavioural pattern documentation gathered from senior-level fintech and banking decision rooms.

The face is not disclosed. The position is. The book is an artifact of that position, made readable.

The work is published under a pseudonym. The author practises in jurisdictions where this level of institutional critique carries professional exposure. The decision to crowdfund does not reduce that exposure.

Heuristics vs Traps · Substack ↗

The first chapter is free. Start there.

Eight chapters are live on Substack, comments open, no paywall. Read one and decide whether the model holds.

Crowdfunding is live for chapters 9–16 · back the full book